The structural oversupply of solar modules on the global market has driven down prices for photovoltaic panels at an astonishing pace. This trend will only continue into 2012. While the solar market will continue to grow at a 10 percent to 20 percent pace in the coming years, reductions in the amount of silicon used in each module due to advanced technology means that end demand for polysilicon will grow at a slower pace. The end result is that the current roster of over 170 polysilicon manufacturers and startups will likely be winnowed down to a dozen survivors by the end of decade. Great news for the economics of solar projects, great news for suppliers, users, cities and the environment. Not so great news for smaller, high-cost silicon producers.
It's a cleanup on the market, only the strong will survive. Main benefitor is the evolution and the direction is right. We are still waiting for major reductions in soft costs, the government will have to simplify permitting and speed up the whole process if we want to have solar on 2/3rds of NYC's roofs.
What do you think? Looking forward to read your comments.